Is it really? H1N1 had 60,800,000 cases, 274,304 hospitalized persons, and 12,469 deaths. We did not collapse our economy for a far worse epidemic. Overreaction?


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:laugh: good one!

Believe he will ask those willing to start opening. Oh course, just as the social isolation is voluntary so won’t the opening be. The big box stores and major chains will open. Small restaurants will with reduced hours and wider seating areas.


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H1N1 (your numbers) 0.02% mortality

COVID-19 (as of 27th March) 4.6% mortality (worldwide) 1.5% (US)

"But we're not finding everyone who has COVID-19! Many people will be walking around and not know they have it!"

How much under-reporting makes this not an issue for you? 2x so maybe the mortality rate is only 0.75% (2.5million expected US deaths)? 10x, getting to 0.15% (0.5million expected US deaths)?

Really, just tell us what your number is. Ignore the data, ignore what might or might not be counted. How many potentially preventable US deaths from COVID-19 is acceptable to you to prevent "crashing the economy"?

If your answer is you don't care about the number, that's fine, just have the balls to say it.

Back to business by Easter
 

We don’t have a firm grasp on the denominator. Let’s see where things shake out.


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Can’t agree more.


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Surely you must have an opinion, or an approach?

Would you prefer to lift all restrictions immediately until we have a firmer grasp on the lethality? How many tests, positive cases and deaths would be enough for you to consider it worse than H1N1 and worth shutting down the economy to save lives?

Same question. What are your numbers? Should all restrictions be lifted immediately in your opinion? How do we deal with it when we see how it shakes out and maybe it turns out that millions of Americans will die, and we're now too late to stop it?

I would have handled this the same way we handled the much worse H1N1 epidemic. We have completely overreacted.


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We deal in data and facts, not projections. The facts are telling those in charge that this event will level out and allow us to create a “soft open” around Easter. Then again, if you want to remain home, it is your choose. FYI, my daughter has a PHD from ND in micro biology and I am married to a analytical chemist. I follow their lead when it involves data


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You say we have overreacted, but when would you react?

You say we have overreacted, would you advocate returning to normal tomorrow?

That's great to hear! Please can you share the data and facts that support a "soft open" around Easter?

I would have declared a national emergency after 1500 like Obama did with the H1N1. I didn’t agree with him much but I thought he handled the H1N1 expertly. He was the best, right?


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Not projections? Your daughter is a microbiologist and she doesn't believe viruses expand or think we can predict the life of an organism?
Better ask her again ;)

We hit 1500 deaths today

And this is despite the various State stay-at-home orders, and Trumps perfect 'early action' on shutting down travel from China.

So what's next? You would declare a state of emergency tonight, and then...?

This virus is going to be around for years. As many have said the shelter in place allows the medical community to get up to speed and put procedures in place on how to handle the infected. If you think you can avoid it you are more miss informed then you are showing here. If you are allergic to something you take precautions. How is this different?


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Also, Obama's declaration of a National Emergency came after 6 months and over 1000 deaths.

COVID-19 has now killed 1500 in 2 months (and is rising exponentially).

But COVID-19 is not more serious than H1N1?

I'm not sure who you are suggesting said that we can avoid COVID-19, but I don't see that in any responses.

It sounds like you agree that stay at home measures and flattening the curve is important to avoid overwhelming our medical facilities and to give us time to develop vaccines/treatments? So that if/when it resurges, we can deal with it just like the regular flu?

But please can you share the data that shows we can safely "soft open" by Easter?

I do enjoy watching the presidents daily press conference. The team of experts inform the country of their progress against this virus and discuss the data available at that time. You should put aside your hatred and listen. Very informative


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2 minutes before...
 

2 minutes before the Titanic met the ice berg the data & facts were the ship was seaworthy & the passengers safe. That was during a calculated risk to take a northern pass and was a winnable gamble though one that was lost.

This is not that. We have hit the iceberg, the hold is filling with water, the ship is listing into ice-freezing water.

We are going to lose up to 30k, or more, in April alone.

According to your way of thinking if you jumped off a 10 story building you would be thinking the first 9 floors were ok, maybe this will work out.... because why trust projections?

I listen every day.

I heard Trump say he thinks we can open by Easter because it's a "beautiful day".

In comparison, Dr Anthony Fauci (the actual expert on the briefing team) says "“You’ve got to be realistic, and you’ve got to understand that you don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline. So you’ve got to respond to what you see happen, and if you keep seeing this acceleration, it doesn’t matter what you say, one week, two weeks, three weeks, you’ve got to go with what the situation on the ground is”

I have not seen any data that suggests that Easter is remotely feasible.

So if you are saying you base your decisions on data, why do you take Trump's word over the actual experts?

I can almost get on board with Major's assertion that Trumps claim is just an aspirational date to inspire calm and confidence. I completely disagree with him, and think Trump is simply delusional and offering up dangerous misinformation. But at least he isn't claiming that the Easter timeline is based on any actual data, or endorsed by experts.

Wow! That’s a reach. What of the projections made by our military at the time our boys would land at the beaches of Europe? They knew many were not coming home but they still went.


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I guess time will tell what the final numbers show.
Most curves predict this peaking in mid-April but no one seems to know for sure.

To shift gears a bit - it is true slowing the cases // flattening the curve is to allow the medical system in the US to not be overwhelmed.

Vaccine-wise > they say they are working on one (which is great) but that will be very interesting as today we have a lot people that refuse vaccines that have been around for many, many, many years. Here comes one developed in 6 to 10 months and would be brand new. Who wants to be first in line? Going to be very hard to get young people to want that.

Agree. Vaccines won’t be available till the fall hopefully. Until then, those at risk must be careful. But with that said, the country must get back to work


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...but only when the experts and the data show that it's safe, right?

For those looking for “data” here is the latest
Attachment 15749


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This was the main point of my original post. Uninformed tribal loyalty is what's going to kill us. People won't give up tribal loyalty even when their life is under direct threat. It's more important for them to win an argument and save face than to stay alive.

You can only protect yourself during a pandemic (war, natural disaster, etc.) by having the facts so you can make intelligent decisions. What is the extent of the current threat? Am I safe where I am? Is it safe to go outside? Would I be safer in another state or country? Is the threat currently increasing, decreasing, or staying the same? What do the experts predict is going to happen? What facts do they base their predictions on? What are they advising us to do?

My personal beliefs are far less useful for saving me right now than fact-based expert opinions. There is some divergence among experts, but it's not huge. There is more or less unanimous agreement that the COVID-19 crisis isn't going to be over in the next two weeks, that it's going to last many more weeks or months, that there's a good chance that it will return next season, and that it's unlikely that a vaccine will be ready in time for the next season.

In all the articles I've read that were written by experts (epidemiologists, doctors) or that quoted experts, none has ever mentioned their political affiliation. This is not about winning a political argument; it's about survival. Whether I'm a Democrat or Republican, I want to survive. For that we need the facts and expert opinions based on them.

We have no choice but to rely on experts, especially those who have closely studied the evolution of COVID-19 in other countries and can draw lessons from those countries, such as how China was able to significantly slow the spread of the virus and why Italy is on a disastrous course. There is no need to put blind trust in the experts if that makes you uncomfortable---the facts that they base their predictions and recommendations on are available online. You can either read the original scientific studies directly, or you can read summaries of them in trustworthy apolitical sources. Here's an article that explains the mathematics behind social distancing, for example: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/15/211803...ial-distancing

The question is whether people want to know the facts and whether they can understand them and make rational decisions based on them. None of those is a given. When this crisis is over it will be seen that ultimately it was human psychological tendencies that turned COVID-19 into a pandemic---the tendency to think that disasters happen to other people or other countries, the tendency to procrastinate, to hold onto beliefs that make us feel better or look better, deliberately concealing information for political reasons (China), our unwillingness to consider positions contrary to our own, and so on.

I'll gladly lose the political argument if it means I'm more likely to survive. Politicizing a virus is foolhardy.

Sorry, fat finger syndrome... I didn’t mean to thank you. And, your SNR is really, really low.


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I don’t believe you when you say you know math and you know science. It’s impossible to compare a pandemic which is over and one that is ongoing.


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Dated March 27th, stating that Dr Fauci is "backtracking", yet the editorial they are referencing is a month old!

OANN say "Meanwhile, Fauci’s backtracking seemed to give credence to some members of the GOP, who have argued the media is over-sensationalizing how lethal the virus is. It also came after the president hinted he may break with experts, specifically regarding opening the economy back up by Easter."

No, it did not come after the President started talking about opening up at Easter. It came on Feb 28th. It was also speculative that it "may" not be that lethal.

On Wednesday March 11th, Fauci told the House Oversight and Reform Committee "COVID-19 is at least 10 times “more lethal” than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization’s current estimate of 3.4%."

I would suggest not relying on OANN for truthfulness.

Did u miss the information published in the New England journal of medicine?


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?
 

Not a reach. Its the conservative end of the range.

What exactly is your point about comparing military projections of the invasion of Europe to the track of projected covid deaths. I am sure there was supposed to be a point. I just can't find it.

OAN??? Really??? Please stop. These folks make Fox News look like CNN. If this is where you get your news I suspect you are hoping for an Easter deadline so you can see the Easter Bunny.


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That's the information from an Editorial first published on February 28th.

Here is the PDF

It was included in the NEJM on March 26th but it says right in the article "This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org"

Solid discussion tonight. Good night


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Have a good night!

Back to Work...
 

The majority of our workforce is the least affected.

Back to business by Easter
 

And that’s the point. A large proportion of our workforce is prohibited from making a living while an infinitesimally small percentage of our total population is infected with the Chinese coronavirus. During the last 3 months, while we lost a little over 1,000 Americans to the Chinese coronavirus, we have lost -

5000 due to the flu (100,000 hospitalized)
6000 due to car accidents (750,000 injured)
150,000 due to cancer primarily from smoking yet we allow tobacco products
150,000 due to heart disease
20,000 due to alcoholism yet we sell alcohol
10,000 due to opioid overdose yet we have free needle exchange

How difficult is it to see that we may have overreacted to this particular risk. Like ApS stated all of us are affected whether we like it or not.


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None of those deaths are exponentially rising.

You say we have overreacted but we hit the point that you would react at all yesterday (3 times quicker than H1N1), and that’s despite the measures put in place due to the “overreaction”.

Also despite the “overreaction” every ‘curve’ in the US is still on an upwards trajectory.

Attachment 15750



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