Ice Story CBS Boston
Emerson said that on an average year, Ice-out is mid-to-third week of April. "Within the last decade, we've had some early years, even records. You have thinner ice, mild winters and don't have the ice build up."
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/boston/n...3N7EQuJe83nfT0 |
Climate change has become a political football.
I can attest to warmer climate as I've been up here for over 50 years. Snowstorms used to be mostly light and powdery now they are mostly heavy, wet, and icy. Is there anything we can do about it, probably not. But doing nothing will change nothing. Maybe the NH lakes region climate will be like North Carolina's some day? |
I try to keep an open mind, and it is sad how many folks do not. But one thing I remind people of when discussing this stuff, is that a little over 10,000 years ago, what we see now at the lake was nothing more than a huge rocky glacier as far as one could see, with ice a mile thick. Thousands/millions of years before that, it was warm. And before that, more glaciers! And so on.
So, we should absolutely, positively treat our environment better and reduce carbon emissions and make all the recommended changes to our behaviors. BUT...it is likely that we have only just scratched the surface of knowing what really goes on with our planet, and major climate changes are sure to occur again, irrespective of what we do or what we burn or what we don't do or burn. Try to keep an open mind! |
Very well said. I have attempted to make that point various times within this Forum. I would be wholeheartedly supportive of a conservational approach to the environment, rather than the Green New Deal approach. Keep the money and politics out of it. Bring back the crying Indian!
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Less snow?
Less snow? I don't mind not putting chains on my tires and roads restricted to "chains only" but, environmentally, we were all better off before the 100% black road policies with less salt and other chemicals seeping into the water shed.
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It isn't that humans are doing all of it... just we are speeding it up.
The politics are simply we tax the things we don't want, and subsidize the things we do want. The mini-splits and electric vehicles allow us to use grid capacity that we have to pay for but goes unused. The support for high efficiency wood and pellet stoves allow us to short-cycle the carbon. Our push for better windows and building envelopes allow us to actually conserve energy. I once saw someone suggest that NH use more nuclear. Only one problem. Most of NH's electric generation is nuclear... a second reactor at Seabrook would require a transmission upgrade - something unlikely to happen after the reaction to the Northern Pass... and the only other location with the existing transmission infrastructure is the only coal plant currently in NH. Arguing to shut the coal plant permanently would create a political storm not worth the effort. |
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We know climate change exists because of what JayR noted. You are correct, we tax things we don't want and we subsidize things we do want. How has that worked so far? Car dealerships have lots of EVs that nobody wants. The wind and solar industries are a scam, spending billions (maybe trillions) of dollars with no meaningful impact on our energy supply. But, we vote in politicians who supposedly represent the will of the people. I guess we want high energy costs. That said, it seems that the winters are milder than when I was a kid. |
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Nuclear is a solid, carbon free power source so we need to have it as part of our US energy strategy at least for the short-term. It is very difficult to bring new units online in the US. Vogtle brought their first Westinghouse AP1000 on line in GA a year or so ago. It can be done but it is pricy! https://www.georgiapower.com/company/plant-vogtle.html |
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I am for conservation. However, we must balance that with the fact that cheap energy has brought more people out of poverty than almost anything else. I hope you are well, John! Merry Christmas to you and your family! |
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Like I said, I don't know the answer, but I do know the results of doing is nothing. On the plus side, a longer boating season would be nice! |
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Pretty sure that my blacktop driveway is warmer than my clover field, and that field is warmer than my forested parcel. Solar is about personal freedom from the corporate utilities... you may want to complain to the Free State Project. I am sure the car companies can take care of themselves... and someone paying less income tax... well, I don't see that as a bad thing... even if I don't personally use that deduction. |
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Sulfur dioxide is an atmospheric coolant. Scientists were looking for the reason for the cooling luckily it turned out not to be natural. |
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So it really isn't about the price... it is about the NIMBY politics. Since we have to deal with the current infrastructure and only small changes (don't even try to trim a tree near the lines)... the strategy is to use the current infrastructure more efficiently. |
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If we want to put a dent in pollution, we should concentrate on the Big Three polluters who have no intent on clean energy, India, Nigeria, and the ocean commercial cargo barges which burn the dirtiest oil. |
There were cost overruns building the first reactor, so the second... I believe... is available to be finished off and activated should the first be shuttered.
The transmission infrastructure can handle the output generated one at a time. But since we are no longer building transmission, the second would not even be considered until the first was in the process of being decommissioned, and then the owner of record at that time would consider the financials of outfitting number two and placing it into operation. Number One had to be subsidized because the cost of NG generation was so low and the thermal efficiency was so high. We also have some smaller generation sites left over due to the decision not to expand the subsidies to biomass generation. Biomass, unfortunately, directly competes with the concept of wood and pellet stove fuel; the government chose to subsidize those instead of burning the biomass for electricity. The State subsidizing one format (electric generation) and the federal government subsidizing the other (Inflation Reduction Act) was an incoherent strategy. But we are not going to stop India, or even ourselves... it is really more a matter of adapting to the change. The change being exponential rather than arithmetic is a challenge, but it is a challenge we don't get a choice to avoid. |
here's what I know
I wouldn't want to own a ski resort...at least on margin!
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Almost all of them can make snow...
The data isn't that it doesn't fall below freezing ever. |
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Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
Regardless, if that campaign had worked, we would not be discussing it today.
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In fact… “ Litter was reported to have reduced by 88% in 38 different states after the ad. This could possibly be one of the most effective public service ad campaigns in the history of advertising.” Fraud or not, I would say the crying Indian ad campaign worked quite well! Dan |
But did it last?
Adopt-a-highway still picks up thousands of bags of trash just in NH; and there never seems to be an end to it. I live on a seldom traveled rural road, and I spend time picking up trash on my property. Removing human factors from a warming winter... that seems like an overwhelming task. |
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The “crying Indian” definitely influenced and played a big part in the superfund creation that to this day continues…. Keep America Beautiful! Dan |
The Long View...
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In the "sawtooth" graphs recording Earth's temperatures, wide swings are noted. It appears Earth is headed towards future Ice Ages, but presently, we're in a warming stage. (Just as several "blips" of warming has been recorded since 1300 AD ). Of course, worldwide volcanic activity can disrupt predictions either way, but this graph demonstrates when there are a greater number of eruptions, it forces future temperatures downwards. https://iceageearth.blogspot.com/201...by-damion.html BTW: Actor Michael Ansara, who played Cochise, was Lebanese! :look: |
With regards to pollution control, until India & China hop on the 'stop pollution' bandwagon, any mitigation on our (USA) part is just a fart in the wind.
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Emerson is talking about a physical observation that has occurred over the last 50 years. My input, as quoted, was that what appear to be ''green'' policies are really more about other factors. The promotion of small scale generation is due to the limitations on the existing infrastructure. We aren't going to get new/upgraded transmission of either electricity or natural gas... so we have to make do. |
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Politics in NH from the Forest Society and Timberland Owners gave us subsidized biomass. They are also strongly involved in blocking new/upgraded transmission lines - block out the competition. So a new tax rebate credit for burning wood makes them happy... and for most of NH doesn't really make anyone sad. We close one door, but open another. I know they would rather have both... but that doesn't seem to be beneficial to the majority of residents. The loss of lake ice, or snow cover, may be an issue for some areas... with some user groups... but they will need to adapt. Maybe some street hockey rather than pond hockey, bob houses on pontoon boats, dog sleds using the summer training wheeled rigs, and fat bikes instead of snowmobiles? But thinking that everyone is going to sport an EV - with the ice storm blackouts we've had - I think that may be a dream too far in a short period of just years. Now to be honest... I don't know that I wouldn't buy a plug-in hybrid if the cost with the tax credit worked out. Just don't know what might happen if for so many short trips the gasoline went bad in the tank. Of course an eight speed or high-efficiency CVT wouldn't be out of the question either. |
Milankovitch cycle...
The Earth wobbles about 4 degrees every 26,000 years or so. Parts of the Sahara desert were once under the ocean as were parts of Wyoming and Montana. Although we should all want a clean planet, not much we can do about that wobble.
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Orbital forcing.
I believe that is the basis for the math used in the climate models to see natural variation and predict prehistoric conditions. Not sure they can help me win this year's Ice Out contest. |
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https://www.laconiadailysun.com/boat...3a8814057.html |
Orbital forcing is very well understood and has been for decades.
The thing that some do not like about it is that if the warming is all natural... nothing can be done. We will see warmer winters and no snow. |
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If it were simply orbital forcing... it would get worse and worse.
Orbital forcing goes until we have a interglacial period (all glaciers are melted including Antarctica)... then tips over the top and goes back toward a glacial period. Interglacial periods can still have snow... but no where on the Earth does the snow cover exist all year long. I don't know the math to determine when an interglacial period would start, or when it would peak before heading back to a glacial period... but each year should push us toward a warmer and warmer global mean temperature, with tempering affecting local averages. But adaptation is what we should expect. Ski resorts will make snow overnight when temperatures allow such. Pond Hockey might become street hockey. The Dog Sled Championships may have to use their wheeled training rigs. Snowshoes... well mine are hanging on the wall as decor... but someone with poles might use them for hiking... and my rubber snow boots work well to keep the puddles from getting my socks wet. |
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